Closing in on the Knockout Phase
The Gallagher Premiership reached the penultimate stage of the regular season last weekend resulting in some, but not complete clarity about how the knockout phase will start. With one weekend to go, seven teams still have a chance to play in the semi-finals on May 18. By Sunday evening, there was 1 change in the top 4 (Quins supplanted by Sale), pursuing the Northampton Saints, Saracens and Bath, and the Leicester Tigers’ season was effectively concluded with the defeat at Sale giving them no mathematical chance of reaching the Top 4.
However, there are permutations that give a handful of teams a long-shot chance of achieving the final four, depending on the results of Round 18 to be played on May 18, as follows:
1) If Saints win or draw against Bath, they finish the season at #1 with home field advantage against the #4 team. If Saints lose (with no BP), Saracens could take top position with a Bonus Point win against the Sale Sharks. 2) If Saracens lose or draw, they still finish in the Top 4. 3) If Bath wins or draws, they are in; if they lose, they could be bumped by an Exeter Chiefs BP win at Leicester Tigers but NOT by a similar result by Harlequins against the Bristol Bears as Bath have a substantially better Points Difference. 4) If Sale wins against Saracens, they are in; a draw leaves them vulnerable to BP wins by Exeter Chiefs or Harlequins while a loss leaves them vulnerable to basic wins by the same clubs. Therefore, the biggest upset at this late stage of the season could be heavy losses by Bath (#3) and Sale (#4) and strong wins by the Chiefs and Quins.
Some of the recent games in the Premiership have seen a lot of tries, a welcome antidote to the statistically effective but visually monotonous kick-tennis that has been popular in international rugby in recent years. But, one reason for the outbreak of try-scoring has been the lack of depth in some squads. Given the number of games that elite players have to play (league; internationals; cup games; etc.) some clubs have been accused of fielding second-team squads for games they believe to be of lesser importance. Saints thrashing of Gloucester 90-0 at the weekend has been cited as evidence of that; the west country team is out of the running for the Premiership semis and is preparing for the final of the EPCR Challenge Cup at Tottenham Hotspur in N. London on May 23rd. Spectators want to see tries and a well-executed running game is a treat to watch but 90-0? The 64 points scored in Harlequins loss to Stade Toulousain in the semi-finals of the Investec Champions Cup were terrific entertainment. Value for money (and tickets are becoming more expensive as time goes by) is another topic for rugby’s senior management to discuss, and soon.